U.S. trade expert Adam Posen sees no immediate threat to the global economy from the Iran war. In a guest piece for “Handelsblatt”, he warns that since the Suez Crisis of 1956 observers have tended to overstate the impact of Middle‑Eastern politics and oil‑market disruptions on the world economy. Posen is the president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, D.C.
According to Posen, wars that are short‑lived and geographically confined do not alter fundamental economic data. “Energy is not a scarce resource with a single source; geographic bottlenecks can be resolved” he writes. “The Strait of Hormuz is a bottleneck, but the more Iran tries to prolong the disruption, the more it harms its own economy and physical security”.
The economist does foresee ominous scenarios, notably if Iran succeeds in inflicting major damage on a U.S. aircraft carrier in the Persian Gulf. “That would affect U.S. forces’ structure and diminish credible deterrence against Taiwan and all U.S. spheres of influence” Posen concludes.
