According to a recent analysis by the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia may launch a large-scale assault campaign targeting Kyiv’s energy infrastructure in the coming weeks. Citing US intelligence, the ISW reports that Russia is reportedly preparing a “significant blow” against the city’s power supply ahead of Ukraine’s Independence Day on August 24th. This attack could involve utilizing Russia’s strategic reserve of ballistic missiles to inflict maximum damage.
While Russia began an assault campaign on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in the autumn and winter of 2025/2026, there is speculation that Russia might start a renewed campaign in August 2026/2027. This timing would allow Russia to capitalize on the persistent shortfalls of Ukrainian anti-missile capabilities.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently noted that Ukraine receives nearly three times fewer intercepts than it did at the beginning of 2026. Over recent months, Russia has exploited Ukraine’s inadequate missile stocks, successfully causing considerable damage with relatively few missiles.
The institute suggests that a new wave of attacks on Kyiv’s energy infrastructure could significantly disrupt Ukraine’s repair and reinforcement efforts for damaged facilities. Ukraine is currently working to repair and strengthen the infrastructure damaged during the 2025/2026 winter in preparation for anticipated attacks in the 2026/2027 winter. Russia might therefore begin its attacks earlier than expected in an effort to interrupt these Ukrainian recovery initiatives. It remains unclear how many energy facilities Ukraine has managed to repair since the last winter.
