Mojib Latif, a climate scientist at the Geomar marine‑science centre in Kiel, says a strong El Nino could develop in 2026. He told “Spiegel” that by late summer the sea‑surface temperature in the eastern Pacific will rise steadily, and a “super‑El Nino” might even form before the year ends. “The revolver is loaded” Latif remarked.
An El Nino weakens the westward‑blowing trade winds. With the winds slowed, less cold water can upwell off the coast of South America. The resulting heat buildup raises surface temperatures and evaporation, which in turn produces heavy rainfall in Peru, Mexico and California. In the western Pacific, the rain stays thin, especially over Indonesia and Australia.
Latif describes this year’s pattern as textbook: it began with characteristic bursts of westerly winds that counteract the trade winds, slowing them. The first sign of an El Nino-markedly warmer sea temperatures-has already appeared off Peru’s coast. Nevertheless, uncertainties linger. In 2014 experts also projected a strong El Nino, but it didn’t materialise until the following year.
Looking ahead, the German Weather Service’s Tim Hempel in Offenbach warns that the effects could reach Europe in the coming winter. “With some delay, atmospheric waves will reach us” he says. If El Nino remains pronounced, Hempel forecasts strong Arctic cold snaps in late 2027.
