A recent study by the Konrad-Adenauer Foundation (KAS), a think tank closely aligned with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has revealed that the party’s intensified focus on migration policy and a controversial joint parliamentary vote with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) prior to the recent federal election appear to have backfired, costing the CDU votes rather than gaining them.
The Ipsos polling institute, commissioned by KAS, surveyed 700 German citizens both before and after the February 23rd election, analyzing shifts in voter sentiment. The research concludes that the CDU’s emphasis on migration, beginning in January 2025, “likely failed to yield positive electoral results”. While the CDU secured 28.5% of the vote – significantly below expectations and a sharp decline from an Infratest Dimap poll in December 2024 which showed 33% support – the study attributes a portion of this loss to voter concerns regarding the party’s political maneuvering.
Specifically, individuals who previously identified as CDU supporters but ultimately cast their ballots for the Social Democratic Party (SPD) or the Green Party cited the CDU’s collaboration with the AfD and the ensuing “firewall debate” as key factors in their changed allegiance. This suggests a significant portion of centrist and left-leaning voters felt alienated by the CDU’s strategic alignment with a party widely perceived as holding far-right views.
Conversely, the study observes a significant surge in support for the Left party (Die Linke), who garnered 8.8% of the vote, a substantial increase from a mere 4% at the beginning of 2025. The Left’s gain is attributed to a combination of factors including heightened optimism regarding surpassing the 5% electoral threshold, a perception of the party as a counterweight to the rising influence of the AfD, policy positions on issues such as rent control, taxation and social welfare and an effective, digitally-savvy campaign strategy. The KAS report explicitly states that “Die Linke likely benefited from the emphasis on the migration question from January 2025.
The study also highlights a disconnect between the priorities of Union supporters and those of Left party voters. While Union supporters overwhelmingly identified weak economic performance and inflation (29%) as their primary concern, followed by migration/immigration (19%) and international conflicts (14%), Left party supporters prioritized social inequality, poverty and rising rents (21%), with the perceived rise of the AfD and related xenophobia (12%) as secondary concerns. This divergence in voter concerns underscores the CDU’s miscalculation in prioritizing a migration-centric campaign, potentially alienating voters whose primary anxieties lay elsewhere. The findings raise serious questions within the CDU regarding its strategic direction and its ability to accurately gauge and address the evolving concerns of the German electorate.
