A significant portion of the German workforce is projected to be impacted by planned increases to the national minimum wage, according to a recent analysis released by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The assessment, based on April 2024 earnings data, suggests that up to 6.6 million jobs could be affected by the rise to €13.90 per hour, scheduled for implementation on January 5, 2026.
Approximately 17 percent of employment relationships were found to be, on paper, below this forthcoming minimum wage level. This change in compensation is estimated to result in a potential increase in total earnings for affected employees, reaching as much as six percent, or roughly €400 million.
The statistical office’s calculations were made under specific assumptions, namely that employees currently earning less than the new minimum wage would receive at least the previously applicable rate of €12.82 per hour. The assessment does not factor in any further wage increases that may have occurred since April 2024, leading to a potential overestimation of the impact – effectively establishing upper limits for the projected changes.
The anticipated wage adjustments are expected to disproportionately benefit women, with approximately 20 percent of jobs held by women experiencing a higher hourly wage compared to just 14 percent of those held by men.
Regional disparities are also evident. Eastern Germany exhibits a higher percentage of affected employment relationships (around 20 percent) compared to Western Germany (approximately 16 percent). Mecklenburg-Vorpommern demonstrates the highest proportion of impacted jobs across all German states, at 22 percent, while Hamburg reports the lowest, at 14 percent. Sector-specific impacts also differ significantly. The hospitality industry (56 percent) and the agricultural, forestry and fishing sectors (43 percent) are projected to be most affected.
Further wage increases are planned for January 1, 2027, raising the minimum wage to €14.60 per hour. Preliminary estimates suggest that this additional increase could impact up to 8.3 million jobs, representing approximately 21 percent of all employment relationships. This second phase is anticipated to generate an additional estimated increase in total earnings of roughly four percent (around €430 million) when compared to the impact of the initial increase.
