Despite ongoing economic challenges in Germany, a significant majority of employees remain confident in their job security, according to a recent survey conducted by the Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW Köln). The study, reported by the Funke Media Group newspapers, reveals that 89 percent of respondents believe their jobs are safe and do not anticipate losing their employment. This represents a slight increase compared to 2024, when the figure stood at 85 percent.
The IW Köln surveyed approximately 5,000 individuals in employment subject to social security contributions, as well as those in marginal employment, between May and June of this year. The research encompassed various labour market-related themes, including expectations regarding potential job loss and the perceived ease of finding new employment.
The proportion of individuals anticipating job loss but confident in their ability to secure comparable new positions – referred to as “switchers” – decreased from 9 to 5 percent over the past year. Similarly, the share of employees fearing job loss and anticipating difficulty finding similar employment remains around 5 percent, largely unchanged from the previous year.
However, the study indicates a divergence between individual perceptions of job security and broader economic sentiment. All three groups surveyed – optimists, switchers and those with concerns – express a more pessimistic outlook on the overall labour market in 2025 compared to the previous year. The median pessimism score, as measured by the IW Köln, fell from -1 in 2024 to -3 this year. Optimists also foresee a deterioration in conditions, while switchers have revised their previous positive assessment to a neutral one.
Holger Schäfer, a labour market expert at IW Köln, explained that employees clearly recognize a worsening general labour market situation, yet do not perceive a greater risk to their own jobs compared to the previous year. He attributes this to the nature of rising unemployment, which is primarily driven by reduced hiring rates rather than widespread layoffs. While reports of workforce reductions may surface, many companies are primarily relying on natural employee turnover and, in some cases, offering severance packages.
The increase in unemployment, Schäfer explains, stems from a decrease in new hires, disproportionately affecting those seeking to enter or re-enter the workforce, such as young people.
The IW Köln recommends that policymakers focus labour market initiatives on supporting job seekers. “Concentrating on employees who have lost or are at risk of losing their jobs is less effective” Schäfer states, “as their numbers are not significantly higher than the long-term average.
The study revealed particularly pessimistic sentiment among industrial workers, with almost 8 percent fearing job loss. This correlates with the current trend of job cuts in the industrial sector. Concerns regarding the impact of technological advancements on skill relevance are prevalent among pessimists, with 53 percent agreeing with the statement, compared to only 17 percent of optimists.
