According to a previously unreleased study from the Institute of the German Economy (IW), which was reported by the “Rheinische Post” (Saturday edition), the new heating law initiated by the governing coalition could potentially cause annual heating costs to nearly double by 2040 if existing residential buildings are fitted with new gas or oil heating systems. Conversely, installing a heat pump would drastically and noticeably reduce this cost risk in the coming years.
The study calculates that for an average household living in a partially renovated old apartment in a multi-family dwelling with an annual consumption of 10,000 kilowatt-hours, the annual heating costs in the baseline scenario would rise from about 1,080 euros in 2026 to 1,952 euros in 2040. If the old gas boiler were replaced with a new gas or oil system, the running operational costs would consequently more than double compared to current levels.
In stark contrast, using a heat pump would keep heating costs largely stable over many years. The calculations suggest that several hundred euros in savings would be achieved annually, potentially reaching 1,000 euros or more per year in the partially renovated old apartment. Furthermore, the cost allocation shows that from 2029 onward, biomethane is expected to be the primary driver of the annual heating bill.
The institute holds a critical view of the new heating law overall. They argue that the regulation creates the impression that gas or oil heating systems can be utilized far beyond the year 2044. This, the IW points out, is in immediate tension with the legislative goal of achieving climate neutrality by no later than 2045.
Moreover, the new heating law introduces a new level of uncertainty. The IW cautions that households might be tempted into investments that appear acceptable in the short term but ultimately prove uneconomical or regulatorily unsustainable in the long run.
