A significant financial shortfall is looming for Germany’s social care insurance system (SPV), with projections indicating a potential deficit of €12.3 billion by 2029, according to a report by the Federal Audit Court (BRH). The findings, released in advance of upcoming budget deliberations with the Bundestag’s budget committee, highlight a growing concern over the sustainability of the current system.
The BRH’s report, citing figures from the Federal Ministry of Health (BMG), paints a concerning picture. The ministry anticipates a deficit of €3.5 billion for 2026 alone, escalating to €12.3 billion by 2029.
The burgeoning deficit is attributed to two key factors: a surprisingly rapid increase in the number of individuals requiring care and a cap on the individual contribution for in-home care services. As of the end of 2024, the number of insured individuals requiring care reached 5.6 million – a 7.7% increase, or 400,000 more people, compared to the previous year.
The audit court sharply criticizes current government policies, calling for a more accelerated pace of reform. A joint Federal-State working group, initiated by Federal Health Minister Nina Warken (CDU), is scheduled to begin meeting on Monday to develop the foundation for a comprehensive care reform. The report emphasizes that the root causes of the crisis have been well-established for some time and numerous reform proposals already exist. The critical shortfall, it states, lies in the lack of political will to implement them.
The proposed €2 billion loan, slated for 2025 and 2026 and facilitated by Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD), is also deemed insufficient by the BRH. The court contends that the loan does not resolve the underlying financial problems and underscores the necessity of a more substantial and far-reaching reform of the SPV.
