The German General Inspector of the Armed Forces, Carsten Breuer, predicts that Russia might conduct a military test against NATO no later than 2029. Speaking to the “Süddeutsche Zeitung”, he stated that “various indicators-armament, personnel buildup, economic and political developments-are converging on one point: 2029” while acknowledging that such an event could happen sooner.
Addressing perceived ambiguities and troop drawdowns from Washington, both Breuer and his British counterpart, Richard Knighton, reaffirmed the unity of NATO. “Our problem is in Moscow and nowhere else” Breuer emphasized, suggesting that Germany currently requires a “Fight-Tonight capability”-meaning the capacity to be immediately operational in a crisis.
To solidify defense cooperation, Germany and Great Britain signed the Trinity House Agreement in October 2024. This treaty mandates closer cooperation across deterrence, operational readiness, and the defense industry. During the announcement, the German and British senior military leaders stressed that their forces are already capable of fighting together, citing joint air policing in the Baltic region and close cooperation within the NATO naval task force as prime examples.
When asked about establishing a European nuclear deterrent involving Germany, Breuer remained measured, stating that “it is not necessary to create new military constructs for that purpose”. Meanwhile, Knighton confirmed that the British nuclear capacity remains fully integrated within NATO structures.
On a connected defense issue, Breuer confirmed that the deployment of a Long Range Fires Battalion in Germany, originally planned under US President Biden, will not materialize. He described it as a “strategic topic”. Initially, the US missiles were meant to bridge the period until Germany built its own long-range defensive capabilities. Attention is now shifting to rapidly implementing “transitional solutions” including the procurement of commercially available systems. Breuer had recently visited the Pentagon, and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) is set to travel to Washington later this month to advocate for the purchase of Tomahawk cruise missiles.
