Andrew Lobbenberg, an aviation analyst at Barclays, believes that the current pricing trends on routes between Europe and Asia are temporary. Lobbenberg told “Spiegel” that once the Gulf carriers resume full operations, prices could rapidly shift, possibly falling to unusually low levels. However, when this might occur remains uncertain even among experts.
Currently, ticket prices on these Europe-Asia routes have increased dramatically-by as much as 560 percent compared to the previous month-due to the conflict involving Iran. The root cause of this price surge is the closure of airspace over Russia, Iran, and the Persian Gulf.
Consequently, European airlines have been rerouting through a narrow corridor spanning Afghanistan and Pakistan. Since the withdrawal of Western forces in 2021, this region has lacked comprehensive air traffic control, including proper radar or conventional air traffic management. Instead, surrounding nations-Pakistan, Iran, and Turkmenistan-are responsible for coordinating the flight operations.
A proposed 14-day ceasefire in the Israeli-Iranian conflict could initiate a gradual easing of tensions. Should the Gulf hubs ramp up their operations and the Iranian airspace become usable in the long term, the current pressure on the Afghanistan corridor and, consequently, flight prices, could noticeably decrease.
