The state election in Rhineland‑Palatinate has been called to begin. Nearly three million voters are set to elect a new Landtag of 101 members: 52 will be chosen directly from electoral districts, while the remaining 49 will be allocated through the parties’ and voters’ group state lists.
Premier Alexander Schweitzer, a Social Democrat, aims to keep the “traffic‑light” coalition with the Greens and the FDP. Recent polls, however, suggest this outcome is unlikely. The liberal FDP appears almost invisible in the surveys, hovering somewhere between zero and three percent. The Greens are expected to hold close to their five‑year‑old result, at about nine percent.
Significant losses are projected for the SPD. In 2021 the party had just under 36 percent; it now looks set to fall almost ten percentage points behind. The CDU is seen between 28 and 29 percent according to the institutes. The Left and the Free Voters register roughly five percent each, raising doubts about their entry into the Landtag.
Under this mix a grand coalition seems the most probable path forward, yet the real question remains which party will ultimately lead.
The CDU faces a similar dilemma as it did two weeks ago during the Baden‑Württemberg state election: while polls place it slightly ahead, many voters remain undecided in the run‑up to the vote. Moreover, the CDU’s candidate-Gordon Schneider-has not emerged as the frontrunner in recent surveys.
