A recent study conducted by the Institute of the German Economy (IW)-and reported by the “Rheinische Post”-has highlighted a “triple migration reversal” that is significantly reducing Germany’s vital potential for labor and skilled workers in the future.
The research indicates that the net immigration-the balance between arrivals and departures-plummeted by more than half last year compared to previous years, settling at 235,000 people. Relying on data from the Federal Statistical Office alongside its own calculations, the IW reports that the migration balance stood at 235,000 in 2025. According to IW author Wido Geis-Thöne, outside of the intense phase of the Covid pandemic, this figure has not been as low since 2010, contrasting sharply with the net inflow of 663,000 people recorded in 2023.
The institute attributes this decline to three distinct phenomena, all classified by the IW as migration reversals. Firstly, the number of initial asylum applications dropped drastically, falling to 113,000 in 2025, down from 329,000 in 2023. Secondly, there is a noticeable return flow of individuals from the new EU member states. While EU immigrants had already filled five percent of all jobs subject to social security contributions in Germany in 2023, a strong reverse trend has emerged. In 2025, 45,000 more citizens from these new EU nations left the country than arrived, a notable increase from the 35,000 net departures recorded the previous year, when the net movement was still an inflow of around 42,000.
The third factor involves an increasing number of native Germans leaving their home country. The study points to a significant rise-from 74,000 to 97,000 individuals between 2023 and 2025-suggesting a possible unfavorable trend among the local population.
The IW researcher warns that if the outward migration of highly qualified specialists continues to accelerate, it could not only worsen current labor shortages but also restrict the economy’s capacity for innovation and its long-term developmental potential. Consequently, the report stresses the importance of strengthening or at least maintaining Germany’s attractiveness as a place to live and work for skilled professionals. This includes, among other things, reducing the burden of taxes and other public levies.
