A recent study by the Ifo Institute has revealed that Ukrainian refugees are prioritizing countries offering robust job prospects and higher salaries over those providing more generous social welfare benefits. The findings suggest a significant influence of economic factors in the decision-making process of displaced individuals seeking refuge abroad.
According to Panu Poutvaara, Director of the Ifo Center for Migration and Development Economics, wage differences hold nearly four times the significance in choosing a host country compared to variations in social benefits. While acknowledging that social welfare does play a role, the research underscores the prominence of employment opportunities.
The survey data indicated that promises of better job options increased the likelihood of a country being selected by a 15 percentage point difference. A €500 increase in average wages was associated with a 9 percentage point higher probability of selection. This emphasis on employment was also observed among those currently unemployed, indicating a forward-looking perspective focused on future workforce integration.
Beyond economic considerations, the presence of friends or family in a potential host country proved to be a factor, albeit with a lower impact at 8.5 percentage points. Geographic proximity to Ukraine held less sway.
Notably, the study also explored the link between long-term settlement intentions and country preference. Refugees planning to resettle permanently outside of Ukraine tended to favor countries further afield, placing greater value on economic advantages over the presence of family and friends.
Yvonne Giesing, Deputy Director of the Ifo Center for Migration and Development Economics, emphasized the importance of understanding refugee motivations for effective policymaking. Discussions around reducing social benefits to disincentivize migration to specific countries are ongoing; however, the study suggests such measures would likely be ineffective.
The findings challenge the potential impact of benefit reductions, highlighting the greater incentive provided by higher wages and accessible employment. Giesing cautions that curtailing state support may also negatively affect long-term integration efforts. The research provides valuable insights for national and international bodies seeking to formulate policies that address the needs of Ukrainian refugees and support their successful integration into new communities.
