According to an Infratest poll taken just before the March 8 state election, the Greens are narrowing the lead over the CDU in Baden‑Württemburg. In the ARD “Deutschlandtrend” pre‑poll, the Greens garnered 27 % of the vote share-up 4 percentage points from mid‑January and still below their 32.6 % from 2021-while the CDU posted 28 % (down 1 point, roughly 24.1 % in 2021).
The other parties trail far behind:
” SPD – 7 % (down 1 point; 11.0 % in 2021)
” FDP – 6 % (up 1 point; 10.5 % in 2021)
” AfD – 18 % (down 2 points; 9.7 % in 2021)
” The Left – 5.5 % (down 1.5 points; 3.6 % in 2021)
” All other parties combined – 8.5 % (up 0.5 point)
The survey, conducted from Monday to Wednesday, sampled 1,530 registered voters. The ARD clarified that the poll is a snapshot of political mood, not a definitive forecast; it captures current preferences rather than actual voting behaviour and is only a partial picture of the eventual outcome.
Commitment to a voter’s choice varies across respondents:
” 68 % of voters say their decision is already set.
” 14 % claim they may change their party preference by election day.
” 18 % either intend not to vote or have no clear affiliation.
Public opinion of the current state government is largely positive: 52 % (up 4 points from January) report being very satisfied or satisfied, whereas 45 % are less or not satisfied.
When it comes to individual leaders, the incumbent Minister President Winfried Kretschmann-member of the Greens-stands out. 59 % feel satisfied or very satisfied with his performance (down 2 points compared with October 2025). For the Greens’ lead candidate, Cem Özdemir, 49 % are very satisfied or satisfied (up 2 points since January), and 40 % feel less or not satisfied.
Regarding the other parties:
” CDU’s candidate Manuel Hagel: 23 % satisfied or very satisfied (up 4 points), 27 % less or not satisfied, and half of respondents know nothing about him or are reluctant to judge.
” AfD’s Markus Frohnmaier: 14 % satisfied or very satisfied (up 4 points), 33 % less or not satisfied, 53 % no opinion.
” SPD’s Andreas Stoch: 17 % satisfied (up 4 points), 29 % critical, 54 % no judgement.
” FDP’s Hans‑Ulrich Rülke: 13 % satisfied, 31 % dissatisfied, 56 % no opinion.
When voters were asked which party should lead the next state government, preferences were split:
” 36 % favour a CDU‑led cabinet (down 4 points from January).
” 34 % support a government headed by the Greens (up 2 points).
” 19 % remain committed to an AfD‑led government.
” 11 % cannot decide.
If the choice is narrowed to CDU versus Greens, 48 % prefer CDU leadership, 34 % prefer the Greens, and 18 % remain undecided.
In a scenario where the state’s prime minister could be elected directly, the Greens lead the vote:
” 42 % choose Cem Özdemir (up 3 points).
” 21 % choose Manuel Hagel (up 2 points).
” 11 % choose Markus Frohnmaier (up 2 points).
” 26 % answer “I don’t know” or do not provide an opinion.
When asked specifically between the Greens and CDU candidates for prime minister, 43 % favour Cem Özdemir, 28 % favor Manuel Hagel, and 29 % remain uncertain or silent.
