A majority of Germans predict that the political balance of power will shift this autumn. According to a survey conducted by the opinion research institute Insa, nearly seven out of ten respondents believe that the AFD (Alternative for Germany) will become the head of government in at least one state following the upcoming regional elections.
Specifically, 41 percent expect an AFD minister-president in a single state, while 28 percent anticipate the party leading multiple states. Only 16 percent do not hold this view, and 15 percent remain undecided.
Should the AFD emerge as the strongest political force but fail to achieve an absolute majority, 40 percent of respondents favor a coalition between the CDU and Die Linke. Conversely, 36 percent support a cooperation with the AFD. Among supporters of the CDU/CSU bloc (Unionsanhänger), a partnership with Die Linke is significantly preferred at 48 percent, compared to just 27 percent favoring the AFD.
Regarding the so-called “firewall” (Brandmauer), 45 percent of those surveyed view it as an advantage for the AFD, while 30 percent disagree, and 25 percent are undecided. German opinions are split on banning the AFD: 38 percent are in favor, 47 percent are against, and 15 percent are undecided. Among voters aligned with the CDU/CSU block, a slim majority of 51 percent supports a ban procedure.
Insa conducted the survey commissioned by “Bild am Sonntag” polling 1,003 individuals between May 28 and May 29, 2026.
