Ulrike Malmendier, former head of economics at the Rheinische Post who now lives in the United States, warns about the consequences of a prolonged war in Iran. “Many voted for Trump because they did not want a U.S. war” she told the Wednesday edition. “Now the key question is how long the conflict will last: if it exceeds four weeks, U.S. citizens will become nervous”.
A long‑term stoppage of the Strait of Hormuz, she explains, would have serious economic repercussions, “not only for the United States but also for the already fragile global economy, because uncertainty would surge”. Even now Americans feel uneasy. “Older Americans immediately recall the oil crisis of the 1970s – with long lines at gas stations and inflation” she said. “But we live in a different world today; the U.S. is no longer dependent on the Middle East” she added.
When asked whether oil prices will rise towards $100, Malmendier pointed out that “futures markets indicate that there won’t be a major increase if the war does not drag on for too long”.
