The EU Commission believes that a large‑scale exodus could occur because of the conflict in Iran, according to confidential diplomatic correspondence cited by “Der Spiegel” and the ARD program “Report Mainz”. A protocol from a Brussels meeting of European diplomats and officials held on Wednesday notes that, while specific figures for refugee flows are not yet available, movements toward rural areas and along the coast are already observable. The documents warn that if the crisis remains unresolved a humanitarian disaster in Iran and its neighbors could unfold, triggering migration patterns similar to those seen in 2015.
Turkey, which is the primary destination for Iranian refugees, has expressed significant concern. Ankara is reportedly planning to establish “buffer zones” along its border and create a tent city that could house up to 90,000 refugees, a development the Turkish Interior Minister confirmed on Wednesday.
In particular, the Commission is worried about the situation of roughly 2.5 million Afghans currently residing in Iran. The correspondence indicates that continued destabilisation of the country could force these people to flee to neighbouring states.
