Elliot Hentov, chief geopolitical strategist at the financial‑services firm State Street, says investors should brace for a sustained rise in oil prices. He told the German publication “Handelsblatt” that the risk premium on oil is likely to stay elevated even if the war begins to wind down. According to Hentov, oil could be about 20 % more expensive after the conflict, putting prices around US $70 - $75 per barrel. He stresses that this would not constitute an “oil shock” but it would still have notable consequences, especially for import‑dependent nations such as Germany. When energy supplies return to normal, prices will gradually normalize, yet they will not rebound fully to previous levels.
At the beginning of the week Brent crude had surged to roughly $120 a barrel, a spike that was followed by remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump which eased market volatility. Trump has indicated that he believes the war is close to ending. Hentov believes the conflict will conclude in weeks, not months, particularly if the United States refrains from deploying ground forces. A prolonged increase in oil costs would lift yields on long‑term sovereign bonds. Higher bond yields, in turn, could make equities less attractive, Hentov added.
