After the polling stations closed in Hungary, Péter Magyar, the leader of the Tisza party, expressed optimism. The challenger to current head of government Victor Orbán called the day a “historic day” on Sunday evening. While describing himself as “optimistic, but cautious” Magyar dismissed claims made by the ruling Fidesz party as mere “delusion” and urged everyone to remain peaceful and patient.
While initial election results are expected later in the evening, post-election polls, which are customary in Germany, are not available. However, a poll conducted by the 21 Research Center for Telex, which ran from April 8th to 11th and was released after the polls closed, indicates that Tisza is leading. According to this poll, Magyar’s party could secure 132 out of the 199 seats in the National Assembly, which would grant them a narrow two-thirds majority necessary to amend the constitution. Previously, Tisza was not represented in parliament.
Orbán’s Fidesz party, which won 135 seats along with the government partner KDNP in the last election, is projected to suffer a significant loss, falling to 61 representatives. Mi Hazánk Mozgalom is expected to gain 5 seats, and the Ethnic Representation representative will secure one seat. The Democratic Coalition and the Hungarian Socialist Party may struggle to gain entry into parliament.
Furthermore, a poll from the Median Institute, carried out in the five days leading up to the election, also shows Tisza clearly ahead, projecting the party to receive 55.5 percent of the list votes against Fidesz’s 37.9 percent.
Determining a reliable trend about the eventual winner is likely only possible hours after the voting centers close. This difficulty is also partly due to the electoral system, which has been altered by Orbán since 2011. Of the 199 mandates, 106 are allocated based on first votes in single-member constituencies using a simple majority. For the remaining 93 mandates, not only the list votes but also all votes received by the defeated direct candidates, and all votes by which the constituency winners lead the respective second-place candidates, are taken into consideration.
