The intended raise of the contribution assessment ceiling within the statutory health insurance (GKV) system is expected to cause a notable shift toward private health insurance (PKV). According to the Ministry’s response to an inquiry from “Der Spiegel” the Ministry estimates that during the reform, an “emigration effect” will result in approximately 100,000 members currently in the GKV switching to private insurance.
Historical data from the Health Finance Committee, used by the working group (Warken), shows that the net outflow of GKV members to the PKV has already ranged between 81,000 (in 2024) and 102,000 (in 2025). A further projected influx of 100,000 switchers due to the reform would thus roughly double these previous figures.
The impetus for this predicted move is the planned, unscheduled increase of the contribution assessment ceiling in the statutory health insurance by 300 euros. This adjustment is particularly burdensome for recipients with higher incomes who earn at or above the current contribution assessment ceiling.
Furthermore, the actual number of affected individuals appears to be smaller than previously estimated. The Ministry now anticipates 5.4 million people being affected by this raise, which differs from earlier economic analyses that had projected an effect on approximately 6.3 million persons.
