According to a new Infratest poll, if a federal election were held on Sunday, the CDU/CSU currently holds 23 percent of the vote. This marks a one-percentage-point drop from early May and is the lowest figure for the Union in the “ARD-Deutschlandtrend” since January 2022. The AfD is expected to retain 27 percent, while the SPD sees a slight gain to 13 percent (+1), the Greens are at 14 percent (-1), and Die Linke remains unchanged at 10 percent. The BSW continues at 3 percent, and the FDP is stable at 4 percent. The poll, which surveyed 1,326 eligible voters between Monday and Tuesday, notes that, unlike some other institutes, Infratest cannot currently measure a “Kubicki effect”. All other parties combined currently account for 6 percent.
Regarding the reasons for the current political preference, half of the voters (50 percent) stated their choice is driven by conviction, while 46 percent explained they are disappointed with other parties. Among supporters, the motivation of disappointment is uniquely prevalent among AfD followers, cited by 57 percent. In terms of criteria for deciding on a party, 74 percent find the party’s political program crucial, 12 percent cite long-term loyalty, and 10 percent name the party’s leadership as the most important factor.
For the Union and the SPD, long-term loyalty is considered more decisive than for other parties. Union supporters indicate that 63 percent consider the program crucial, followed by 24 percent citing long-term loyalty, and 9 percent mentioning the leadership. For SPD adherents, 55 percent prioritize the program, while 35 percent value long-term loyalty, and 7 percent name the leadership.
On the current performance of the federal government, 12 percent of respondents are very satisfied or satisfied (−1), while a majority of 87 percent (+1) are less or completely dissatisfied with the work of the Union and the SPD.
In terms of individual performance, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) remains the best-rated cabinet member, with 54 percent satisfied-a two-point decline since May. Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul (CDU) is rated at 30 percent satisfaction, with 40 percent dissatisfaction and 30 percent unsure or unable to judge. North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wüst shows 31 percent approval; 31 percent are dissatisfied, and 38 percent either don’t know him or are unable to judge. Innenminister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) currently receives satisfaction ratings of 21 percent (very satisfied or satisfied), suffering a four-point drop compared to May, while 58 percent are less or completely dissatisfied (+7).
Lars Klingbeil (SPD), Deputy Chancellor and Finance Minister, maintains a satisfaction rating of 21 percent, while 63 percent are dissatisfied with his work. Bärbel Bas (SPD), the Minister of Labour, continues to rate at 18 percent satisfaction; 58 percent are dissatisfied, and 24 percent do not know her or cannot judge. Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) remains poorly rated, with only 16 percent satisfied and 82 percent dissatisfied. Minister of Economics Katherina Reiche (CDU) holds a 15 percent satisfaction rate, a rise of three points since May; 57 percent are dissatisfied, and 28 percent are unsure or unable to judge.
Survey results regarding party chairpersons show that 21 percent are satisfied with the new FDP leader Wolfgang Kubicki, while 50 percent are dissatisfied, and 29 percent do not know him or are unable to judge. Tino Chrupalla (AfD parliamentary group leader) achieves 19 percent approval (+1 compared to April); 55 percent are dissatisfied, and 26 percent are unsure. Heidi Reichinnek (Die Linke leader) is rated at 18 percent (+3 compared to April), with 43 percent dissatisfied and 39 percent unsure. Britta Haßelmann (Green parliamentary group leader) is approved by 10 percent (+3 compared to April); however, 31 percent are dissatisfied, and a large 59 percent do not know her or cannot judge.
The high level of support for the AfD in both federal and state levels is intensifying the debate about potential collaboration. Overall, about four in ten Germans (41 percent, an increase of one point since November 2025) still favor excluding any cooperative ties with the AfD. Three in ten (31 percent, up one point) support examining possibilities on a case-by-case basis, while a quarter (24 percent, down one point) advocate for targeted cooperation attempts.
The CDU’s decision to rule out coalitions or similar forms of cooperation with the AfD is encountering divided reactions among Germans: 47 percent deem this fundamental exclusion correct (−13 compared to September 2024), while 47 percent deem it incorrect (+12). Among supporters of the Union, nearly all approve of the CDU’s stance of incompatibility with the AfD. However, the CDU’s delineation from The Left largely lacks public support: 33 percent find this correct (−8 compared to September 2024), while 56 percent find it incorrect (+10). Nevertheless, while the public view is split, a majority of CDU supporters-51 percent-agree with their party’s position toward Die Linke, according to the Infratest poll for ARD.
