A new district heating atlas compiled by the Prognos research institute suggests that a significant portion of German housing could potentially be heated using centralized district heating in the future, with fast one in every two apartments looking like a possibility. Prognos projects that district heating has enormous growth potential. According to their findings, the proportion of apartments heated by district heating nationwide could rise from the current 15 percent to 47 percent by 2045. The evaluation incorporated variables such as population density and the existing infrastructure of district heating lines.
However, the actual chance of a district heating network being successfully constructed is tied to factors like financing. Stefan Beismann, Head of Corporate Clientele at DZ Bank, noted to the Handelsblatt that a network designed for 10,000 users would fail to be profitable under current conditions if only 7,000 residents decide to use heat pumps instead.
Beismann emphasized that state guarantees could be a vital element, allowing municipal utilities better access to financing for district heating projects. Other potential solutions include liability waivers from KfW and funding mechanisms provided by local government bodies. For this reason, the municipal heating plans, which communities with over 100,000 residents must submit by June 30th, should only be viewed as rough guiding points.
