Estimates suggest that the planned increase in the tobacco tax is projected to reduce the volume of cigarettes sold in Germany by approximately 25 percent. This projection, reported by the Pro-Newsletter Gesundheit in Politico’s news magazine, is based on calculations from the Federal Ministry of Finance, which may contain uncertainties.
According to the Federal Statistical Office, 66.4 billion cigarettes were taxed in Germany in 2025. A 25% drop would represent 16.6 billion fewer units, bringing the total volume of taxed cigarettes to below 50 billion.
The tax hike is designed to achieve two objectives: to generate additional revenue for the budget and, simultaneously, to reduce consumption of tobacco and nicotine products. While health policy experts often advocate for a stronger tax increase to meet the consumption reduction goal, finance policy experts view it primarily as a tool for budget consolidation and are cautious about particularly steep hikes.
Regarding financial projections, the Ministry of Finance anticipates that the tax increase will bring in roughly 11.6 billion euros more over the next four years, with total revenue from tobacco tax expected to reach approximately 21.3 billion euros by 2030. However, finance and health politicians from various parties, including the Union, SPD, and Greens, doubt that the government will realize these targeted revenues due to expected purchasing avoidance effects.
