The population of Germany is once again shrinking, but this trend is developing very differently across the various regions of the country. This observation comes from the new study, “Demographic Status of the Nation,” which was jointly prepared by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development and the Wüstenrot Foundation. According to the research, the population of Germany could fall to approximately 81.8 million people by 2045. Overall, two-thirds of the 400 districts and independent cities are projected to lose residents.
The demographic divergence is particularly pronounced in Eastern Germany. Twelve of the 20 districts rated weakest are located in the East. While certain regions-including Dahme-Spreewald, Leipzig, Potsdam, and Dresden-are seeing growth, others, such as Suhl, are losing up to 30 percent of their population. Significant differences are also noted in the West: while the Saarland continues to face population decline, major cities like Frankfurt am Main and Düsseldorf are experiencing growth.
The study emphasizes that a reduction in the working-age population does not automatically equate to a decrease in employment. The authors argue that economically successful regions are better at integrating various population groups into the labor market. Furthermore, the net migration balance is increasingly becoming the deciding factor in whether a region expands or contracts. Large metropolitan areas and their surrounding localities have particularly benefited from the influx of younger inhabitants.
