Sigmar Gabriel, the former SPD chairman and Federal Foreign Minister, fears that U.S. President Donald Trump will become even more aggressive in foreign policy following the midterm elections on Tuesday. Speaking on the Politico podcast “Berlin Playbook,” Gabriel stated that there is a significant risk that Trump could fully dedicate himself to foreign affairs, potentially launching a renewed attack on Iran immediately after the elections.
Gabriel notes that if Trump loses the elections, he will face increased pressure domestically, but he remains “relatively free” on the foreign policy front. The former SPD leader added that a two-thirds majority in the Senate against him is unlikely, and thus, impeachment or successful removal is not feasible.
He urged Europe to prepare for this potential unstable situation, summarizing the mindset as “Hoping for the best, preparing for the worst.” Gabriel pointed out that the Americans are unlikely to alter their fundamental shift in policy, which is prioritizing the Indo-Pacific region over Europe. This trend dictates a clear mandate for Europe: “We must become economically stronger and also strengthen our defense policy. Only then will we be a partner that the U.S. takes seriously. Right now, we are only a very limited partner for the United States.”
Regarding the elections themselves, Gabriel anticipates a major shift in the House of Representatives, though he views the Senate as completely open. He finds it considerably more challenging for Democrats to achieve a majority there. Looking at the domestic situation, he believes the United States is entering a “lame duck” phase. He predicts that Democrats will focus heavily on exposing instances of corruption, thereby becoming self-absorbed and neglecting the nation’s broader problems.
Despite these political uncertainties, Gabriel maintains hope for Ukraine. Citing recent meetings with various senators in the U.S.-regardless of their party affiliation-who continue to support Ukraine, he hopes that the sheer pressure on Trump will prevent him from adopting Russia’s stance and abandoning Ukraine incrementally.
