Decline Driven by Demographic Shifts
Mixed

Decline Driven by Demographic Shifts

According to preliminary results released by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) on Tuesday, Germany recorded around 654,300 births in 2025. This figure represents a decrease of 3.4% compared to the previous year (2024, which saw 677,117 births). This marks the fourth consecutive year of declining birth rates, reaching the lowest point since 1946.

The number of deaths, estimated at approximately 1.01 million, exceeded the number of births by 352,000 in 2025. This represents the largest birth deficit in the post-war era. Experts attribute these persistently low birth rates to two main demographic trends: the entry into the crucial early 30s age group of the numerically smaller cohorts born in the 1990s, and the overall declining fertility rate observed since 2022.

When examining the structure of births by birth order, the statistics remained stable in 2025. Of all newborns, 46.6% were the first child, 34.8% were the second, and 18.6% were the third or subsequent child.

Regionally, the decline in births in 2025 was more pronounced in the eastern federal states (-4.5%) compared to the western federal states (-3.2%), consistent with previous years. Among the individual states, only Hamburg reported a slight increase of 0.5% in births, while Mecklenburg-Vorpommern experienced the steepest decline at -8.4%.

These preliminary findings are not unique to Germany, as other European Union nations, including France, Austria, Italy, and Sweden, are also reporting declining birth rates. In contrast, birth figures in Spain, the Netherlands, and Finland show signs of stabilization.

Looking ahead, the statisticians note that a future increase in Germany’s birth rate would require a significant rise in the fertility rate along with at least moderately stable net immigration. However, even under these favorable assumptions, the birth rate is still projected to remain below the considerably higher level observed in 2021, which saw approximately 795,000 births.