The DAX commenced the trading week with positive momentum, starting Monday morning’s session. By 9:30 a.m., the headline index was calculated at approximately 24,360 points, marking a 0.3% increase compared to Thursday’s closing level.
However, Jochen Stanzl, Chief Market Analyst at Consorsbank, cautioned that while the index’s recovery before the extended weekend appears impressive in isolation, it does not reflect a corresponding shift in the overall market trend. He pointed to several lingering concerns, including persistently high oil prices, the unresolved geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and mounting pressures from new tariff threats that are dampening overall market sentiment.
Looking ahead, the DAX is entering a period traditionally viewed as seasonally weaker. Stanzl suggested that the index is likely to continue experiencing lateral movement and stated that the index may lack the necessary strength to charge toward an all-time high, particularly as long as oil prices remain near $120. Overall, a discernible trend in the DAX remains absent.
Regarding energy markets, analysts noted that current investor positioning draws strength from the fact that, while oil prices rose to $120, this level has not been surpassed since the start of the war. The $120 mark is considered a key indicator for energy market sentiment; the markets currently seem comfortable with prices fluctuating between $100 and $120. Given that western stockpiles are depleting daily, a surge above $120 would become a matter of time if maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.
Similarly, skepticism surrounds the proposed rescue missions in the Persian Gulf announced by US President Trump. The central question remains whether any ship will actually attempt passage through the Strait of Hormuz while the issues of insurance and safety protocols are not fully resolved. Stanzl concluded by advising that stock markets are increasingly reluctant to react to political rhetoric alone, preferring to wait for tangible actions and results.
In other markets, the Euro was slightly weaker at the start of the week, trading at $1.1726 per Euro, which meant the dollar was available for 0.8528 Euros. Gold prices also showed weakness, with a fine ounce trading at $4,586-a decline of 0.6%-equating to €125.74 per gram. Meanwhile, oil prices saw a modest increase: a North Sea Brent barrel cost $109.00 at 9 a.m. German time, a rise of 78 cents, or 0.7%, from the previous day’s close.
