Current energy price hikes, when compared to the previous year, are reaching levels comparable to severe oil crises and global economic downturns of the past. However, the increase seen immediately after the war against Ukraine began four years ago was significantly steeper.
According to a comparative analysis by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) covering the last 50 years, data for crude oil, refined mineral oil products, and natural gas provides a detailed picture of price development across different economic levels.
As of March 2026, German consumers faced average price increases of 17.3% for Super gasoline and 29.7% for Diesel compared to the previous year, raising energy costs overall by 20.0%. Light heating oil saw a very sharp rise of 44.4% compared to March 2025.
By contrast, the price increases at the beginning of the Ukraine conflict were much more dramatic. In March 2022, private consumers paid an average of 41.9% more for Super gasoline and 62.7% more for Diesel than the previous year, resulting in a 46.8% overall increase in fuel costs. For light heating oil, the cost jumped nearly two and a half times (a +144.4%) compared to March 2021.
Examining wholesale markets reveals a diverse picture for producer and import costs in March 2026. This range is attributed to both the still relatively high price levels for select energy products and the influence of long-term contracts and pricing mechanisms. Specifically, manufacturer costs for mineral oil products surged by 18.3%-fueled by tensions in Iran and the Middle East-compared to March 2025. Conversely, producer prices for crude oil (-10.2%) and natural gas (-19.5%) were lower year-over-year. On a month-over-month basis (compared to February 2026), the price increase was marked, with crude oil rising by 14.8% and natural gas by 8.8%.
Similar variability was noted in import prices. In March 2026, crude oil imports were 24.6% more expensive than a year prior, and mineral oil imports rose by 48.6%. Natural gas imports, however, decreased year-over-year by 8.6%. Notably, the decline in import prices was partly due to a return to higher baseline levels used in the comparison to the previous year. Meanwhile, comparing March 2026 to February 2026, both crude oil (+45.9%), mineral oil products (+41.6%), and natural gas (+19.6%) experienced a significant, recent price increase.
Looking back, the spikes in March 2022 were particularly stark: crude oil imports rose by 24.6% year-on-year, and mineral oil product imports increased by 48.6%. However, the dramatic cost increases noted in March 2022 were also partially due to a base effect, as 2021 was characterized by low oil and gas imports due to pandemic-related demand levels.
Historically, periods of high price increases similar to the current situation have only been linked to:
1. The oil crises of 1973/74 and 1979/80.
2. The 2008/2009 financial and economic crisis.
3. The COVID-19 pandemic.
4. The onset of the Ukraine war.
The 1973/74 crisis is a prime example: following the Yom Kippur War, imported crude oil prices jumped 41.7% month-over-month in November 1973. By March 1974, imported oil was more than three times as expensive as the previous year (+221.1%). For private consumers, fuel price rises peaked in February 1974 at +32.5%, and light heating oil reached peak rates in December 1973 (+183.3% versus December 1972).
Similarly, during the second oil crisis (1979/1980), rising geopolitical tensions-stemming from the Islamic Revolution in Iran and the first Gulf War-drove price increases. Crude oil import prices peaked in March 1980, doubling compared to the year before (+101.4%). For consumers, light heating oil cost 110.8% more than a year earlier in July 1979, and fuel prices hit a historical high in September 1981.
The 2008 financial crisis was also marked by extreme energy price volatility. In July 2008, imported crude oil was 50.6% more expensive year-over-year, with consumers seeing price peaks for both fuel and heating oil. Following a sharp downturn in the second half of 2008, oil import prices rose steadily, reaching new highs in March 2012.
Development during the COVID-19 crisis presented a different trajectory: after a rapid decline in energy prices due to demand collapse until April 2020, prices saw a clear rebound beginning in June 2020, fueled by robust economic recovery.
When the Ukraine war began in March 2022, prices jumped significantly, with imported crude oil being 87.5% higher year-over-year. This trend accelerated, surpassing earlier records, while natural gas saw the steepest jump, rising 330.5% compared to the previous year in March 2022, reaching a historical peak by August 2022.
