The average gas storage level across Germany as of May 1st was reported by the initiative Energien Speichern (Ines), a collective of German gas and hydrogen storage operators, to be only about 26 percent. This level is comparable to the low levels seen during the crisis year of 2021/2022, and the initiative questioned the apparent lack of incentive for energy companies to improve the situation.
Mark participants are currently hesitant to buy and store gas on the wholesale market because of the sharply increased prices. Instead, they are waiting, as theoretically, much cheaper gas could be purchased for the coming winter months. However, this approach creates a critical risk: it is possible that while gas suppliers may have a legal right to a delivery supply during the winter, the gas may simply not be physically available.
Analyzing potential shortages, Ines noted that a scenario featuring a temperature level comparable to the reference year of 2010 predicts significant supply deficiencies. Under such a cool scenario, total deficits amounting to 20 TWh could occur during January, February, and March of 2027. Furthermore, the model calculations indicate that on certain days, up to 35 percent of the gas consumption could go uncovered.
Although the market is currently purchasing gas on the wholesale market in a volume projected to fill the storage facilities to 76 percent by November 1st, the storage operators remain skeptical of whether this amount will prove adequate. They pointed out that the previous winter taught them that a booking and filling level of 76 percent is only sufficient if the weather cooperates.
