A recent study by researchers from the University of Bordeaux, published on Wednesday in the journal “Science Advances” indicates that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is significantly less stable than previously assumed. According to the findings, this major ocean current system, often called the “central heating system of Europe” is projected to weaken by 51 percent by the end of the century. This figure contrasts sharply with earlier climate models, which estimated a decline in AMOC strength to be only 32 percent.
The actual magnitude of this weakening depends on future greenhouse gas emissions levels. The 51 percent reduction is based on the SSP2-4.5 scenario, which is considered the most aligned with current climate policy measures. Notably, the model does not yet account for the potential additional weakening effect caused by meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet.
The AMOC operates by transporting warm, near-surface water from the tropics northward and cold deep water southward. This circulation system is considered a central, tipping element of the Earth’s climate system. A failure or significant disruption of the AMOC would result in the average temperature across Northwest Europe dropping by 5 to 15 degrees Celsius compared to current levels. Such a decline would lead to intensified summer droughts, extreme winters, and a noticeable shift in tropical rainfall zones.
