Sinking Fiscal Shadow: Germany's Debt Expenses and Interest Payments Predicted to Soar by 2030
Politics

Sinking Fiscal Shadow: Germany’s Debt Expenses and Interest Payments Predicted to Soar by 2030

According to a leaked internal document from the Federal Ministry of Finance, which “Spiegel” has reported on, the German government is facing increasing pressure to spend a larger portion of its tax revenue simply on interest payments.

The data shows a significant increase in the government’s reliance on debt. The debt financing ratio-which indicates the percentage of the national budget funded by borrowing-is projected to nearly double by 2030. For context, it stood at 13.6 percent in 2025, but is expected to rise to 26.3 percent.

Even more concerning is the development of the interest-tax ratio, which measures what proportion of the country’s tax income must be allocated to cover debt interest. This figure, according to the Ministry of Finance’s figures, is set to jump from 7.7 percent last year to 18.4 percent by 2030.

This dramatic escalation is driven by the federal government’s planned accelerated accumulation of debt. Specifically, the black-and-red coalition government approved a €500 billion special investment fund in 2025, dedicated to climate protection and infrastructure, which will be debt-financed. Additionally, a substantial part of the nation’s defense expenditure is scheduled to be supported by credit financing.