Volkswagen has significantly lowered its sales forecasts for the Chinese market and is increasingly emphasizing its export strategy. During an interview with the “Handelsblatt”, China Managing Director Ralf Brandstätter announced that the group now expects to sell up to 3.2 million vehicles in China by 2030, a sharp reduction from the previous estimate of up to four million units.
The outlook for profitability has also revised downward; instead of the historically common double-digit margins, Volkswagen now projects profit margins of only four to six percent. Brandstätter explained that these earning expectations are permanent shifts, adding that “these times will not return. The market has become more mature, and competition more intense”.
Simultaneously, Volkswagen is repositioning China as a core export base. Company plans to boost annual exports from the current figure of about 70,000 units to approximately 250,000 by the end of the decade. The growth engine for the group is expected to come from emerging markets, including Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and South America, as the Chinese domestic auto market is experiencing significantly slower growth. This trend is mirrored by Chinese competitors, who are increasingly focusing on international sales, with BYD, for example, targeting around 1.5 million export vehicles by 2026.
To align with this revised strategy, VW has already reduced its production capacities within China by approximately 1.5 million vehicles. The group is scheduled to provide a further strategy update in Beijing on Thursday, ahead of the Beijing Auto Show.
