The weather phenomenon known as El Niño has firmly established itself and may intensify into a very strong event in the coming months. This projection comes from an analysis published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Thursday.
Exceptionally warm conditions in the tropical Pacific are supporting this development, which could have significant global impacts on temperature and precipitation patterns. The WMO has forecast a nearly 100 percent probability that El Niño will persist until February 2027. Potential consequences include extreme heat, droughts, and flooding.
In response to this extraordinary event, the WMO and various national meteorological and hydrological services have intensified their preparation and early warning efforts. António Guterres, the United Nations Secretary-General, warned that the world is currently in a hazard zone for extreme weather conditions, stressing the urgent need for climate action. He stated, “We are now in a race between increasing risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win this race.”
Celeste Saulo, the WMO Secretary-General, emphasized that this exceptional El Niño requires extraordinary preparation and response. She noted, “Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a large-scale mobilization together with national meteorological and hydrological services, who are on the front lines providing forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods.”
Temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean have already been significantly above average and continue to climb. This increasing warming trend is likely to further strengthen the El Niño conditions. However, the impacts of a very strong El Niño event vary depending on the region and season, and these effects can be influenced by other climate drivers.
