In the most recent Infratest voter‑confidence survey for North Rhine‑Westphalia, the ruling parties the CDU and the Greens have seen a decline. The July 2026 poll, conducted for WDR’s “Westpol” magazine, placed the CDU at 35 %-a drop of four percentage points from June 2025-with Green support at 13 %, down two points from the previous reading.
In contrast, the SPD has begun to recover from its record low in June 2025. Its share has risen by four points, bringing it back to 20 % for the first time since June 2023. The AfD has also edged forward, reaching 15 %-an increase of one point-which eclipses the Greens and matches its best result from June 2023. The Left lost one point, remaining at six %, which would still be enough to earn a seat in the state parliament, but the FDP’s slight gain to four % (plus one point) will not suffice. All other parties together account for seven %.
Satisfaction with the state government remains evenly balanced. Forty‑eight per cent of respondents are still satisfied, unchanged from the last survey, while 49 % are dissatisfied-an increase of four points since June 2025. When judging the performance of Minister‑President Hendrik Wüst, respondents are slightly less positive than in the April 2024 poll: 45 % say they are satisfied (down two points) and 38 % are dissatisfied (up two points).
A year ahead of the 2027 state election, the SPD leadership has settled on Jochen Ott as its lead candidate. The party’s group chair is largely unknown to the electorate: only one in four eligible voters (24 %) feel capable of forming an opinion about him. For twelve per cent of respondents, Ott is considered a strong candidate for the SPD, and an equal share expresses doubt. Among SPD supporters, a clear majority hold a positive view (26 % to 5 % negative); however, a substantial number of them still know little about the candidate.
Infratest’s NRW trend survey, conducted between 26 and 29 January 2026, interviewed 1,164 eligible voters-683 by telephone and 481 online.
