A survey commissioned by the ARD suggests that the outcome of the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election on 22 March could be close.
In a poll carried out by the opinion‑research institute Infratest from Monday to Wednesday, 1,534 eligible voters were asked. The Conservative Party (CDU) currently sits at 29 % of the vote, up by 1 point from February and slightly above the 27.7 % it received in the 2021 state election. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) is only one point behind at 28 %, its share also up by 1 point from February but down from the 35.7 % in 2021.
The alternative party (AfD) remains at 19 %, unchanged from February and well above its 8.3 % in 2021. The Greens are down to 8 %, a drop of one point relative to February and from the 9.3 % seen in 2021. The Free Voters are at 4.5 %, just below the threshold required for a seat in the Landtag (they had 5.4 % in 2021). The Left stays level at 5 %. All other parties combined amount to 6.5 %. The Free Democratic Party is below 3 % and therefore not shown separately.
Three‑quarters (73 %) of respondents feel certain about their voting choice. One‑eighth (12 %) say their party preference could still change by election day. One‑seventh (15 %) lean toward not voting or show no preference for a party at all.
When asked who should lead the next state government, 35 % favour an SPD‑led coalition (no change from February), 32 % support a CDU‑led government (+2 points), and 21 % want an AfD‑led administration (+2 points). Twelve percent remain undecided.
If given a choice only between an SPD and a CDU government, 36 % opt for SPD leadership, 36 % for CDU, and 28 % are undecided.
Regarding who would serve as Minister President, 38 % prefer SPD candidate Alexander Schweitzer (+4 points from February), 21 % back CDU’s Gordon Schnieder (+4), and 8 % choose AfD’s Jan Bollinger (+1). A third of respondents (33 %) say they do not know or give no answer. If the choice were limited to the SPD and CDU candidates, 41 % pick Schweitzer, 23 % choose Schnieder, and 36 % cannot decide.
Satisfaction with the current coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP is moderate: 46 % are very satisfied or satisfied (+2 points), while 49 % are less satisfied or not satisfied (−1 point). Satisfaction with incumbent Minister President Schweitzer is at 44 % very satisfied or satisfied; 28 % are less satisfied, and another 28 % are unfamiliar with him or reluctant to judge.
Regarding individual party leaders: 23 % are satisfied and 25 % dissatisfied with CDU Speaker and top candidate Gordon Schnieder, 52 % are not familiar with him or cannot judge. With Green Party chair and Environment Minister Katrin Eder, 20 % are satisfied, 24 % dissatisfied, and 56 % are not familiar. FDP Minister-candidate Daniela Schmitt is satisfied by 19 %, dissatisfied by 23 %, and 58 % have no opinion. For Free Voter candidate Joachim Streit, 15 % are satisfied, 22 % dissatisfied, and 63 % are unfamiliar. AfD speaker Jan Bollinger is liked by 12 %, disliked by 28 %, and 60 % are not familiar.
The ARD clarified that this poll is not a forecast but a snapshot of the political mood in the week before the election. It measures current voting intentions, not actual vote‑behaviour, and reflects the ongoing public‑opinion process rather than a final outcome.
