Following the state election in Baden Württemberg, the latest weekly poll for RTL and ntv shows a clear shift in the balance of forces at the federal level. The Union-CDU and CSU together-has edged up by one percentage point to 27 %, while the AfD has slipped one point to 23 %. Thus the Union and the AfD are now more distinctly separated.
The SPD, already hurt by its poor result in the state election, has fallen another two points to 12 %. The Greens, on the other hand, have gained three points and are now at 15 %, passing the SPD. The FDP has slipped below the 3 % threshold and is no longer listed separately. The positions of the Left (11 %) and the BSW (3 %) have remained unchanged from the week before.
In the assessment of political competence, the SPD’s score has dropped sharply by three points to 4 %. Twenty‑nine percent of respondents still see the Union as most likely to solve Germany’s problems, 19 %; 11 % believe the AfD could, 11 %. The Greens are at 7 % (+1) and the Left at 5 %. More than half of eligible voters, 52 %, do not trust any party to resolve the country’s issues.
The evaluation of Chancellor Friedrich Merz shows little change: only 25 % of federal citizens express satisfaction with his work, whereas 74 % are dissatisfied, keeping his assessment low.
The survey covered respondents from 10 to 16 March 2026 and included 2,503 people.
