Former U.S. Air Force general and Iran specialist S. Clinton Hinote believes it is almost impossible for the U.S. Navy to lock down the Strait of Hormuz against Iranian attacks on tanker vessels. He explained to a German news magazine that any “blockade” of the strait – a highly contested waterway – cannot be solved with military power alone. While U.S. naval escorts could repel many attacks, Hinote expressed doubts that they could guarantee 100 % protection.
Hinote developed scenarios in the early 2000s, while President George W. Bush was in office, for a potential war with Iran. Each military option to secure the strait carries risks that are hard to eliminate. “What if a drone gets through and a super‑tanker explodes in the middle of the strait?” he asked. “Defending a convoy demands perfect success, and if the passage is not absolutely safe, shipowners will not expose their crews to that risk. Even if an insurer accepts covering a tanker for that route, it would command exorbitant premiums”.
He described the idea of invading the Iranian coast along the strait as “high risk”. A large ground operation would be required, and Bandar Abbas – a key Iranian port with about 700,000 residents – sits on the shore. “We do not know how the local population would react to our soldiers. We cannot predict whether Iranian civilians would remain loyal to the regime or respond hostilely to our presence” Hinote said.
Despite the dangers, Hinote believes that safer traffic through the strait is possible if the regime can be convinced that further blocking is a bad idea. According to him, U.S. President Donald Trump is attempting to do exactly that by threatening to bombard the oil terminals on the island that are vital for Iran’s oil exports. Hinote, however, remains skeptical that such a threat will tip the balance of power in Tehran.
