A new tax forecast reveals that the Federal government, the states, and the municipalities must anticipate significantly lower tax revenues in the coming years than projections made last autumn. Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) presented this outcome on Thursday, detailing that total expected tax revenues between 2026 and 2030 will fall by approximately 87 billion euros compared to the October estimate of the previous year. Consequently, an annual shortfall of about 17 to 18 billion euros is projected.
The Federal government itself is set to face the largest decrease, with the federal tax estimate for the 2026-2030 period corrected downwards by 52 billion euros. Municipalities will see a reduction of around 24 billion euros, while the states are expected to lose approximately 16 billion euros. The only area projected to increase is EU taxes, which are expected to rise by about five billion euros by 2030.
Despite the downturn, revenues are expected to grow, though at a slower rate than previously anticipated. For 2026, tax revenues are projected at 998.8 billion euros, and 2027 is anticipated to exceed the trillion-euro mark with 1,033.4 billion euros. By 2030, revenue is forecast to reach 1,138 billion euros.
Minister Klingbeil attributed the reduced estimates to global economic challenges, stating that the conflict in Iran and what he described as “Trump’s irresponsible war” and the resulting worldwide energy price shock are disrupting positive economic momentum.
He stressed that the current situation remains marked by significant uncertainty, necessitating continuous crisis management. This includes implementing immediate relief measures to cope with high energy prices, and preparing to act if the crisis escalates further. Looking ahead, Klingbeil reaffirmed the commitment to investing in reforms to make Germany more resilient and more independent. The primary objectives remain securing jobs, generating new employment, and sustaining overall economic growth.
