The business climate for travel agencies and tour operators continued to deteriorate in April. According to the Institute for Economic Research, the industry indicator from the Ifo Institute recorded a figure of minus 43.5 points, marking a decline from the seasonally adjusted minus 41.8 points recorded in March. While companies rated their current situation markedly poorer in April than in March, their business expectations showed a slight improvement.
Ifo sector expert Patrick Höppner noted that the “Iran conflict placed particular strain on the travel industry in March”. He pointed to the lifting of travel warnings for key flight transit countries in the Middle East at the end of April as a positive development.
However, more than half of the surveyed travel agencies and operators considered demand in April to be weak. Höppner warned that if travelers continue to wait for further developments regarding the Iran conflict, bookings could be negatively affected, especially for the latter part of the 2026 summer season and the 2026/2027 winter season. Furthermore, uncertainty among travelers persists due to ongoing discussions about potential aviation kerosene supply bottlenecks starting in the summer.
The proportion of travel companies anticipating rising prices in the coming months also increased again in April. Fuel costs for aviation kerosene remain significantly higher than before the conflict escalated at the end of February, suggesting that holiday flights are likely to become more expensive throughout the year.
Concerns regarding rising transport costs extend to road trips across Europe. It appears that refueling costs during the Pentecost and summer periods will be higher compared to the previous year. Data from the European Commission’s Weekly Oil Bulletin shows that Super E5 (diesel) refueling prices in Austria at the beginning of May 2026 were approximately 20 percent higher than at the beginning of May 2025 (34 percent). Similar increases were recorded for Italy at about five percent (29 percent), France at approximately 21 percent (39 percent), and Croatia at around 18 percent (32 percent).
