According to an analysis published by the Ifo Institute on Wednesday, while fracking could potentially enhance Germany’s long-term natural gas supply, it is unlikely to resolve current shortages or noticeably lower gas prices in the immediate future.
Karen Pittel, who heads the Ifo Center for Energy, Climate, and Resources, noted that the potential of Germany’s shale gas reserves is significant. However, she stressed that utilizing this resource would require hundreds of drilling operations. Constructing an industry capable of producing these volumes would necessarily take many years.
The potential production volume from fracking is estimated at 5 to 10 billion cubic meters annually, which would account for approximately 6% to 12% of Germany’s 2025 gas consumption-the current domestic share standing at 4.2%. Despite this potential, it remains unclear whether fracking could be economically viable in Germany without requiring governmental subsidies.
Cyril Stephanos of the German Academy of Sciences (Acatech) commented that even the added output would be relatively small globally and would not significantly influence world market prices.
Regarding environmental concerns, the researchers assess the risks of fracking as low, provided that stringent standards are enforced. They advocate for permitting pilot drilling to collect more data regarding actual production costs and environmental impact. Implementing these trials, however, would necessitate lifting the current fracking ban in Germany, a move that could encounter significant public opposition.
