Regional data suggests a significantly lower rate of inflation ahead of the new figures expected from the Federal Statistical Office. Across several states, the rate of price increases has dropped. For instance, Bavaria saw inflation fall from 2.6 percent in May to 2.5 percent this month. Major federal states also experienced reductions: North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) and Baden-Württemberg both saw inflation decrease from 2.4 percent to 2.1 percent, while Niedersachsen dropped from 2.8 percent to 2.5 percent. Similarly, Hessen went from 2.6 percent to 2.3 percent, Brandenburg from 2.8 percent to 2.4 percent, and Saxony from 2.8 percent to 2.3 percent. Sachsen-Anhalt saw a slight dip, moving from 2.9 percent to 2.5 percent, and Rheinland-Pfalz went from 2.7 percent to 2.4 percent, with Saarland reducing its inflation rate from 3.1 percent to 2.8 percent. Berlin recorded the strongest decline, with expectations showing a drop from 2.8 percent in May to 2.2 percent currently.
One of the primary drivers for this decrease has been falling food prices. For example, in NRW, food prices declined by 0.1 percent compared to the same time last year, marking the first time since March 2024 that the prices in the state were below the previous year’s level.
However, energy prices have shown a countervailing trend. While electricity and gas in NRW registered price reductions between June 2025 and June 2026 (at -4.2 percent and -1.3 percent, respectively), heating oil specifically became significantly more expensive, increasing by 16.0 percent. Fuel prices rose overall by 5.6 percent; diesel was 8.3 percent higher and gasoline was 4.7 percent higher than the levels from June 2025, even with the current fuel discount still in effect.
Nationally, the Federal Statistical Office reported an inflation rate of 2.6 percent for May. Based on the latest state data, the office anticipates this figure will fall to between 2.2 and 2.4 percent. The Federal Office is expected to release its official estimate for the inflation rate in June around 2 p.m.
