Since 2020, mutual antipathy among supporters of German political parties has risen significantly, according to an analysis released on Thursday by the Ifo Institute’s Dresden branch. Ifo researcher Klara Lehmann noted that this distrust is growing primarily between supporters of established parties, particularly between the Union and the Greens. However, she clarified that, contrary to common assumptions, this increase is not directly attributable to the AfD. The rise in animosity among party factions is similarly pronounced in Eastern Germany as it is in the West.
The analysis indicates that about half of the stronger antipathy since 2020 concerns the relationship between the Union and the Greens, while another fifth relates to the cooling relationship between the Union and the SPD. Lehmann stated that while the exact cause of the post-2020 surge cannot be finalized, several concurrent developments contributed, including the Covid-19 pandemic, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, and the collapse of the governing coalition known as “Ampel.”
This evaluation examines how intensely supporters favor their own party and reject others, regardless of how far apart their policy positions might be. The authors are extending an established polarization index, based on the GESIS Political Barometer, up to 2024. The surveys use sympathy ratings for parties on a scale of 0 to 10, coupled with declared voting intentions. Overall, about 65 percent of the increase since 2013 is due to a genuine intensification of animosity (animosity effect), while only 35 percent is due to shifts in voting weight (weighting effect). Although the index shows a slightly steeper rise in the East, this is largely a mathematical effect stemming from the different party landscape there. The actual increase in mutual rejection, however, is equal in both Eastern and Western Germany.
