A study conducted by the Institute of the German Economy (IW) indicates that without increased immigration, the working-age population in the large rural regions of eastern Germany is projected to shrink by over one-fifth before 2045. This demographic decline could jeopardize the ability to provide necessary services to the population.
Currently, the working-age population in the east numbers approximately 7.7 million. However, if migration trends remain static, this figure is expected to drop by nearly 22 percent to around six million by 2045. Over the period spanning 1995 to 2025, the eastern states have already lost 2.3 million working-age individuals, causing the share of those employed in the total population to fall from close to 71 percent to under 63 percent.
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Saxony-Anhalt are expected to be particularly hard hit. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the working-age population could decrease by almost 25 percent if no migration occurs, while Saxony-Anhalt faces a projected reduction of over 24 percent. Wido Geis-Thöne, an IW expert, cautioned that a widespread shortage of labor could prevent the economy from fulfilling its obligations to the population. He stressed that service industries, which are difficult to automate, would be among the most severely affected sectors.
