According to the “Welt am Sonntag,” EU COVID-19 aid is projected to cost German taxpayers approximately 150 billion euros over the coming decades, based on the publication’s own data.
The repayment and interest costs for the EU Recovery Fund are estimated to accumulate between 649 and 681 billion euros by 2058. If the current average German contribution to the EU budget-which the federal government sets at 22.6 percent-persists into the future, Germany’s share of this burden would fall between 145 and 154 billion euros, translating to roughly five billion euros annually.
Looking solely at the next EU budget cycle (2028-2034), the required payments for interest and repayment are estimated to be between 140 and 168 billion euros. Germany’s share in this period is projected to be between 32 and 38 billion euros. Furthermore, for the current budget cycle (2021-2027), where only interest payments-not repayments-are due, the costs estimated by Brussels have nearly doubled, rising from 15 billion euros to 28 billion euros.
The exact future costs remain uncertain as they are contingent upon interest rates and Germany’s future economic strength relative to the EU budget. It is important to note that over half of the total funds provided are grants going directly to recipient countries. These grant amounts are meant to be repaid to the financial market creditors by the EU between 2028 and 2058. While Germany, along with France and the Netherlands, is among the largest net contributors to the fund, Spain and Italy are among the largest recipients in absolute terms. The “Welt am Sonntag’s” assessment of the total EU liability is based on a grant volume of 421 billion euros.
These financial burdens have drawn sharp criticism from politicians. Moritz Körner, an FDP MEP, noted that Germany, as one of the biggest net contributors, bears multi-billion-euro liabilities even though the German economy has performed significantly worse than many recipient countries since the pandemic. He argues that Germany is effectively funding debt programs for other nations while its own economy is struggling, adding that funds were also deployed in questionable ways.
Similarly, Monika Hohlmeier, a CSU MEP, strongly criticized the management of the fund. She suggested that the EU states should have used the COVID fund to prepare for future crises, but contended that large sums of money likely simply drained away into national budgets. She questioned whether hospitals in nations like Spain or Italy were truly better prepared for the next pandemic as a result. Hohlmeier concluded that the fund demonstrated that shared European debt is unsound, despite the eagerness of some net recipients.
