According to a new analysis released by the Federal Institute for Population Research (BiB), the life expectancy calculated at the point of retirement typically underestimates the actual duration of later life for pensioners.
The study reveals that individuals turning 65 in recent decades have lived longer than the life expectancy figures calculated for that age. This disparity was particularly noticeable among cohorts who reached their 65th birthday between 1980 and 2003, who recorded the greatest gains-between 1.5 and 2 years. The institute attributes these advances primarily to medical breakthroughs in cardiovascular diseases.
The analysis further highlights that the most significant improvements in post-retirement life expectancy have been seen in older age groups. Specifically, people between the ages of 75 and 84 have benefited immensely from medical progress, which has significantly reduced mortality rates in that bracket. Michael Mühlichen from the BiB noted that future increases in life expectancy are “highly likely,” as scientists still see substantial potential for advancements in treating diseases prevalent in later life, including cancer and dementia, alongside cardiovascular conditions.
These findings carry significant implications for national pension policies. Some countries, such as Italy and Denmark, have already tied their retirement age to the development of life expectancy. This type of linkage was also proposed for Germany by the Age Security Commission. Sebastian Klüsener of the BiB concluded that while life expectancy at age 65 does tend to underestimate the average remaining lifespan, the underestimation is seldom greater than ten percent. Consequently, the life expectancy at 65 is considered “robust enough” to serve as a suitable baseline for linking the retirement age.
