Just ten days before the Berlin House of Representatives election, the Left Party has regained its lead in the voter preference measurements conducted by Instiut Infratest.
According to the latest polling, the CDU currently holds 20 percent (a drop of 1 percentage point from last week, compared to 28.2% in 2023), while the SPD stands at 12 percent (up 1 percentage point from 18.4% in 2023). The Greens are projected at 16 percent (-2, compared to 18.4% in 2023), the Left Party is at 21 percent (an increase of 2 percentage points from 12.2% in 2023), and the AfD remains stable at 18 percent (compared to 9.1% in 2023).
The BSW, which is participating in a Berlin House of Representatives election for the first time, currently registers 4 percent, just below the mandate threshold, echoing the findings of the previous week. All other parties combined account for 9 percent, which includes the FDP (2023 result: 4.6%).
In terms of voter sentiment, one in six eligible voters in Berlin (16 percent) stated that their party preference might still change before Election Day. However, two out of three voters (68 percent) confirmed that their voting decision is settled. Another 16 percent indicated either their intention not to vote or showed no clear preference for any specific party yet.
When asked to choose between a Senate led by the CDU, the Greens, or the Left Party, a relative majority of 34 percent favored a CDU-led Senate. Plans for a Left-led Senate gathered 28 percent, and 19 percent favored a Green-led Senate. If voters were forced to choose only between the CDU and the Left Party, both options drew equal support, with 42 percent favoring a CDU-led Senate and 42 percent supporting a Left-led Senate. For a CDU-led Senate, supporters of the AfD and SPD were slightly more inclined to support it, while the Greens’ supporters formed a majority in favor of a Left-led Senate.
Regarding individual candidates, none of the top contenders currently command a majority of positive support among respondents. With Elif Eralp of the Left Party, 20 percent reported being very satisfied or satisfied; 26 percent were less or entirely dissatisfied. CDU top candidate, Stefan Evers (Financial and Cultural Senator), received positive feedback from 18 percent, while 28 percent were rather dissatisfied. SPD candidate Steffen Krach garnered 16 percent satisfaction and 28 percent dissatisfaction. The Greens’ Werner Graf had 10 percent satisfaction and 20 percent dissatisfaction, while Kristin Brinker (AfD) registered 9 percent satisfaction and 26 percent dissatisfaction.
Across the board, a majority of respondents either did not know the candidates or did not feel confident enough to offer an opinion on them. Specifically, 23 percent of voters believe Elif Eralp (Left) would be a good mayor, while 33 percent disagree. 22 percent trust Stefan Evers (CDU) as a good mayor for Berlin, though 30 percent believe he would not be. For Werner Graf (Greens), 11 percent stated he would be a good mayor, while 30 percent felt otherwise.
Infratest surveyed 1,527 eligible voters in Berlin for ARD between Monday and Wednesday of this week.
