With the state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern just about a week away, the SPD remains closely monitored by the AfD, according to a ZDF political barometer. If the election were to take place next Sunday, the projections suggest the AfD would lead with 37 percent, followed by the SPD at 34 percent. The CDU is projected to achieve 7 percent, while the Linke stands at 10 percent, the Greens at 5 percent, the BSW at 4 percent, and other parties combined reach 3 percent. Under these projected figures, the current government coalition of the SPD and the Linke would no longer command a parliamentary majority.
However, the research group responsible for the numbers cautions that these projection values should not be treated as a prediction of the final election outcome. This warning applies not only to which party will be strongest but also specifically to whether smaller parties will meet the 5 percent threshold, as 25 percent of voters are still undecided on whom or whether to vote for in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
For context, the results of the last state election in 2021 showed the SPD at 39.6 percent, the AfD at 16.7 percent, the CDU at 13.3 percent, the Linke at 9.9 percent, the Greens at 6.3 percent, and all other parties combined at 14.2 percent.
Regarding the approval of top candidates, the incumbent, Manuela Schwesig (SPD), is dominant across Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Compared to her challenger, Leif-Erik Holm from the AfD, whose 28 percent of voters would like to see him as Minister-President, a clear majority of 61 percent supports Schwesig (with 5 percent expressing no opinion and 6 percent not knowing). Furthermore, although this current configuration would not be sufficient to form a government between the SPD and the Linke, it is the only realistic coalition model surveyed that finds 46 percent more supporters than opponents (41 percent support; 13 percent are neutral or unsure).
