A political barometer released by ZDF suggests that amid the campaign leading up to the Berlin State Parliament election, a two-way race between the Left Party (Linke) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is emerging.
According to the survey projections, if the election were held next Sunday, the Linke would secure 23 percent, while the CDU would stand at 21 percent. Other parties include the Greens at 16 percent, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 17 percent, and the BSW at 3 percent. Together, the remaining parties account for 10 percent, with no single party expected to reach the three percent threshold.
These initial figures imply that the current Senate, composed of the CDU and SPD, does not hold a majority. However, the study indicates that several potential coalitions could achieve a majority: one involving the Linke, Greens, and SPD, and another consisting of the CDU, Greens, and SPD.
The research group Wahlen notes that these figures merely reflect the parties’ current standing and should not be taken as a definitive forecast for the election result. Factors such as statistical error margins and varying levels of voter mobilization among different parties until election day could still cause changes. Furthermore, 28 percent of respondents remain unsure whether or who they want to vote for, meaning the final outcome is uncertain.
For comparison, in the last State Parliament election in 2023, the figures were different: the CDU received 28.2 percent, the SPD 18.4 percent, the Greens 18.4 percent, the Linke 12.2 percent, the AfD 9.1 percent, and other parties collectively gained 13.7 percent.
The influence of top candidates appears to be limited among many voters. Of the three main figures, the CDU’s Stefan Evers is desired by 25 percent of voters, followed by the Linke’s Elif Eralp at 23 percent, and the Greens’ Werner Graf receives 9 percent of support. A majority (18 percent) either rejects all three candidates or states they do not know them well enough to make a judgment.
Similar ambiguity exists when asked about preferred coalitions. A potential government led by the Linke, SPD, and Greens received the most overall support at 37 percent, though 55 percent viewed this combination negatively (with 8 percent being indifferent or undecided). In contrast, the union of the CDU, SPD, and Greens was rated favorably by 22 percent, but was actively rejected by 64 percent (including 14 percent who were undecided or neutral).
