The elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern remain particularly closely contested in the northeastern regions.
According to recent forecasts from ARD and ZDF, the SPD, led by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, secured a strong average result of 35.7 percent. However, if the BSW manages to gain a seat in the state parliament with 4.9 percent, it seems unlikely that a majority of seats could be achieved by combinations such as the Greens (5.5 percent) and CDU (5.0 percent), or by the Greens and the Left (6.6 percent). Furthermore, the Christian Democrats still face uncertainty regarding entry into the state parliament. Meanwhile, the AfD is the strongest force with 37.9 percent, but all other parties categorically exclude cooperation with the AfD, except for the BSW.
The government options are clearer in Berlin. Here, the Left Party (24.4 percent) could potentially govern alongside the Greens (14.9 percent) and the SPD (12.0 percent). Consequently, the CDU (19.5 percent) is expected to be excluded from the government. Both the AfD (15.3 percent) and the BSW (5.0 percent) will likely find themselves in the opposition, though the BSW might narrowly miss the five-percent threshold.
