The CDU/CSU parliamentary group has expressed skepticism regarding whether the projected increased revenues resulting from the hike in the tobacco tax, as expected by Federal Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD), will actually materialize.
Fritz Güntzler, the fraktion’s spokesperson for financial policy, told “Bild” that while the Ministry of Finance predicts these additional revenues compared to current regulations, it also holds the responsibility of evaluating potential tax-induced avoidance behaviours-such as reduced consumption or tax evasion responses, including purchases in foreign countries or on the black market-and incorporating these factors into the calculations.
According to the amendment proposal put forward by the CDU/CSU and SPD parliamentary factions, the country is set to generate €1.5 billion in additional revenue by 2027, with the figure expected to rise to around €4.5 billion by 2030. Despite this, when contacted by the newspaper, the Ministry of Finance declined to explain precisely how these additional funds would be generated, instead referring the inquiry to the relevant governing party factions. Within the leadership circles of the Union parliamentary group, there is significant doubt about the reliability of the expected revenue figures.
The Association of Taxpayers (BdSt) also anticipates that raising the tobacco tax will lead to avoidance behaviour, resulting in little to no actual revenue improvements for the Finance Minister. Reiner Holznagel, President of BdSt, stated to “Bild” that the tax increase will actually stimulate the black market because more smokers will gravitate toward cheaper illegal cigarettes. He added that the tax authorities will end up with nothing. Thomas Liebel, head of the customs and finance union, echoed this warning, stating that the tax authorities face a disaster. The concerns suggest that Klingbeil could face a “double bill”: achieving lower-than-hoped-for revenue coupled with higher costs for tackling smuggling.
